Why Obama will lose the General Election
May 7 at 8:08am by Macranger
While the MSM is crowning Barack Obama this morning and Hillary is cancelling appearances on morning talk shows, let’s review the facts of whether or not Barack Obama could win the White House. The old adage, “numbers don’t lie” will tell the story.
David Allen at The Politico tells us that Obama still isn’t winning the white vote - critical if he would win in November. As I said in the previous post I doubt this changes even if Hillary drops out. If he can’t win the white vote he can’t win - period, and again just because Hillary drops out doesn’t mean whites that supported her will simply turn to support Obama. A few might, but not in great measure. Allen’s point that liberal Democrats are voting for Obama while more moderate/conservative dems are voting for Hillary is key. Morever Obama isn’t even close in the 60 or over white vote category.
But there are many more problems that Obama will face after the Democratic Convention in the general campaign that simply will derail his quest. Namely a more concentrated media exposure. Divided with Hillary the media has really played more or less coach and mentor to the Wright/Ayers/Rezko connections, but with Hillary out of the picture this will change. The stories and potential further light on some of these connections will be too hard for interpret journalists to miss.
Further with greater media scrutiny Obama’s superficialness will become even more apparent he will have to be even more “articulate” about “change” and “hope”. True some in the media - such a Chris Matthews will continue their fetish with Obama, yet others like Tim Russert are beginning to circle anticipating increased opportunity for exposure.
This will include increased exposure on Michelle Obama who has proven to be almost the albatross to her husband that Wright has, which is why she has been limiting her appearances of late.
In the end - using a Wizard of Oz metaphor, the curtain will be pulled back, and America wills see that the dreamy idealist is more than anything “The Candy Man” and little else. Obama will get a lot of votes but simply not enough to carry the day. In the end people don’t vote for paper tigers but for real flesh and blood reasons. McCain for all his faults has the name recognition, history with the American people that Obama doesn’t have.
This all adds up to the GOP keeping the White House in 2008.
2 Responses for "Why Obama will lose the General Election"
CommentGuy
May 7th, 2008 at 6:39 pm
1A left of McGovern/Carter platform trying to run with the egghead and Black Dukakis Caucus.
Not a winning formula I believe.
Clinton out soon, Obama will win presidency « Musings of a Thoughtful Conservative
May 7th, 2008 at 8:52 pm
2[…] UPDATE: Mac Ranger disagrees. Possibly related posts: (automatically generated)Florida lawmakers offer up plan to seat delegatesObama Accuses Clinton of DeceptionWho saw this coming?Why Hillary Can’t Win Posted in 2008, Elections, presidential. Tags: 2008 presidential election, Barack Obama, general election, John McCain. […]
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